Optimism or Delusion?

There is, it seems to me, a fine line in perception between being optimistic and positive, and being utterly delusional. For example, on 30th January 1943, Hermann Goering, comfortable in the German Luftwaffe headquarters in Berlin, made a broadcast to the beleaguered German 6th Army at Stalingrad; he compared them to the Spartans at Thermopylae, the heroic saviours of the Athenian city-state. That was optimism, looking on the bright side. The army huddled in their rat-infested bunkers amongst the ruins of the city, saw it a different way: Goering was totally delusional, and they were going to die, either in the rubble of Stalingrad, or in the camps to which the survivors would undoubtedly be sent. Or here’s another one. In January 1842, General Elphinstone took at his word the Afghan chieftain Akbar Khan, who promised a safe passage out of the country back to India for the British army which had been occupying Kabul. Elphy-bey was undoubtedly optimistic that his army and its camp followers would reach Jalalabad and the Khyber Pass safely under Akbar’s protection, but totally delusional about the trustworthiness of his opponent. It didn’t end well, with the column harassed from virtually the moment it left Kabul until its final death throes with the last stand of the 44th Regiment of Foot at Gandamak. (There is a well-known painting of this - created some fifty-odd years later - in the Essex Regiment Museum in Chelmsford.) We can also see the other side of the coin - in the summer of 1940, most of the world would probably have written Churchill off as delusional, with his belief that the Nazi hordes rampaging across Europe could be defeated; in that case, the optimist was right. As I said, it’s a fine line.

What made me think of this curious dichotomy was reading some of the statements made by members of the current UK government. They have - apparently - :

• stabilised the economy

• fixed the economic foundations of the country

• created a climate for growth in the economy

• protected ‘working people’

I would venture to suggest that those claims are very firmly on the delusional side of the line. Britain has the third highest borrowing cost amongst developed economies, and although it is possible that the Bank of England may (I would suggest mostly for political reasons) cut base rate once more this year, the ugly truth is that UK interest rates are on an upward curve, perfectly demonstrated by the level of gilt yields. And gilt yields are a more significant indicator of true borrowing costs in the country than base rate, these days.

I don’t think there is a single forecaster - apart from the delusional government - who is indicating any significant growth in the UK economy in the next period. Taxes and unemployment are rising - is that “protecting working people?” Throwing constant lumps of money at public sector workers only serves to increase the size and inertia of the state; that does nothing to stimulate genuine economic growth, which can only come from the private sector; but if you are ideologically out of step with the concept of the private sector, then you probably won’t understand the problem……

And there are other pledges that don’t seem to be being fulfilled. The 6500 new teachers - the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee has said that Phillipson has “no coherent plan to achieve that”; I would imagine that her reaction to that will just be to change the way of measurement…… And 1.5 million new homes in this Parliament - in your dreams, I’m afraid.

I could go on, but it’s simply a litany of failure - utterly, utterly delusional.

Still, we’re off to France for a couple of weeks. I wouldn’t suggest that they are much better off governmentally, but at least the sun will shine, the food will be good and the wine excellent; and the company, as well.

If I may, I shall finish by paraphrasing my favourite medieval french poet - “Mais où sont les de Gaulles et Churchills d’antan?” (I profoundly apologise to the shade of François Villon for taking that liberty with his masterpiece.)