Decisions, decisions...

A couple of weeks ago, Anthony wrote here an article (“The Consolations of Metals”) which was broadly speaking about decision-making. He spoke of the relative merits of different academic backgrounds of politicians, and the possible effect that may have on their ability to make decisions effectively. (I should interject here that - unlike him - I do not wish our new PM well; I wish him gone, with his whole cabal, as soon as possible. But that’s a discussion for another day…)

The reason I come back to this topic is because at about the same time as we published that article, I went to the cinema and saw the film Pressure. That film tells the story of the few days leading up to the 1944 D-Day invasion, focussed on the part played by weather forecasting. Put like that, it frankly sounds as though it might be a bit dull; in fact, though, it is an absolutely fascinating masterclass in decision-making.

First, by James Stagg, who is the chief meteorological officer to the Allied Headquarters. He is charged with producing the forecast for Eisenhower, which will ultimately determine whether or not the invasion fleet can set sail across the Channel. Can he stick with his methods, which involve amassing data from every weather station within thousands of miles of the target area, and processing that, or should he bow to the pressure put on him by the American forecaster, who has been with Eisenhower through North Africa and Sicily, and whose methods are more akin to a kind of mean reversion to previous weather patterns?

And then there is Eisenhower - the man who has to make the final decision as to whether or not the invasion will happen. Stick to the plan and risk disaster if the storm Stagg is forecasting has not blown through by D-Day, or delay and risk greater build-up of German forces on the French coast?

The American forecaster predicts a fine sunny day, with calm winds over the Channel on 5th June - the original target date - and along with virtually all of the commanders in the room urges Eisenhower to stick with the plan. Stagg disagrees, and predicts storms on the 5th, and recommends delay. Eisenhower has to make a decision - and this is why the title of the film is Pressure.

Anyway, the decision is to delay, and then Stagg predicts a window of opportunity the following day - and Eisenhower has to make a decision again. Well, we all know what the result is; I guess my point is how those decisions, and the pressure on the minds of those who have to take them, put into perspective where our little lives sit.

Incidentally, and I only just discovered this, the late 60s Scottish rugby international Peter Stagg was James Stagg’s son.